{"id":485,"date":"2011-05-09T12:58:56","date_gmt":"2011-05-09T04:58:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/inout.asia\/?p=485"},"modified":"2011-05-09T12:58:56","modified_gmt":"2011-05-09T04:58:56","slug":"%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e6%98%af-adwords-%e5%b9%bf%e5%91%8a%e7%b3%bb%e5%88%97%e5%ae%9e%e9%aa%8c-%e2%80%ba-%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e6%98%af%e6%9c%89%e7%bb%9f%e8%ae%a1%e6%84%8f%e4%b9%89%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.my0513.com\/?p=485","title":{"rendered":"\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f AdWords \u5e7f\u544a\u7cfb\u5217\u5b9e\u9a8c \u203a \u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u6709\u7edf\u8ba1\u610f\u4e49\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<table border=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/adwords.google.com\/\">AdWords<\/a> \u203a <a href=\"https:\/\/adwords.google.com\/support\/aw\/\">\u5e2e\u52a9\u6587\u7ae0<\/a> \u203a <a href=\"https:\/\/adwords.google.com\/support\/aw\/bin\/topic.py?topic=15240\">\u60a8\u7684\u5e7f\u544a\u4e0e\u5e7f\u544a\u7cfb\u5217<\/a> \u203a <a href=\"https:\/\/adwords.google.com\/support\/aw\/bin\/topic.py?topic=16077\">\u5e7f\u544a\u7cfb\u5217\u4e0e\u5e7f\u544a\u7ec4<\/a> \u203a <a href=\"https:\/\/adwords.google.com\/support\/aw\/bin\/topic.py?topic=28565\">\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f AdWords \u5e7f\u544a\u7cfb\u5217\u5b9e\u9a8c<\/a> \u203a \u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u6709\u7edf\u8ba1\u610f\u4e49\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><a name=\"content\"><\/a><\/p>\n<div id=\"page-content\">\n<div>\n<h2>\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u6709\u7edf\u8ba1\u610f\u4e49\uff1f<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"article-content-div\">\n<p>\u7edf\u8ba1\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5076\u7136\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6307\u6807\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u751f\u7edf\u8ba1\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u8868\u793a\u60a8\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6027\u66f4\u6539\u5bf9\u8be5\u6307\u6807\u6ca1\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u3002\u8bf7\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u7edf\u8ba1\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u5bf9\u60a8\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u60a8\u5728\u8bc4\u4f30\u7ed3\u679c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5e94\u8003\u8651\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u60a8\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\u6bcf\u6b21\u8f6c\u5316\u8d39\u7528\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u6bd4\u8f83\u660e\u663e\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01 20.32 \u5143\u5bf9 20.24 \u5143\uff09\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u8fd9 0.08 \u5143\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u60a8\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u6765\u8bf4\u5e76\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u770b\u5230\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u5dee\u5f02\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u5177\u7edf\u8ba1\u610f\u4e49\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5efa\u8bae\u60a8\u5148\u4e0d\u8981\u6025\u7740\u505a\u51fa\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u78b0\u5de7\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u771f\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u60a8\u8fd0\u884c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u52a0\u957f\uff0c\u6709\u7edf\u8ba1\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5c31\u4f1a\u5f00\u59cb\u51fa\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e09\u79cd\u7ea7\u522b\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u610f\u4e49\u7ed3\u679c\uff1b\u770b\u5230\u7684\u7bad\u5934\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u5c31\u8d8a\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6027\u66f4\u6539\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u78b0\u5de7\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u4e00\u4e2a\uff08\u5411\u4e0a\u6216\u5411\u4e0b\uff09\u7bad\u5934\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u6307\u6807\u63d0\u5347\u6216\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u6709 5% \u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u8981\u5f52\u7ed3\u4e3a\u78b0\u5de7\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6027\u66f4\u6539\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u4e24\u4e2a\u7bad\u5934\u8868\u793a\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e3a 1%<\/li>\n<li>\u4e09\u4e2a\u7bad\u5934\u8868\u793a\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e3a 0.1%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u8981\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4e86\u89e3\u8be6\u60c5\uff0c\u8bf7\u53c2\u9605\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7ae0\u8282\u3002 <a>\u8ba1\u7b97\u5c55\u793a\u6b21\u6570\u3001\u70b9\u51fb\u6b21\u6570\u53ca\u8f6c\u5316\u6b21\u6570\u7b49&#8221;\u8ba1\u6570\u7c7b&#8221;\u6307\u6807\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u610f\u4e49\u6570\u503c<\/a><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>\u8981\u8ba1\u7b97\u6cca\u677e (Poisson) \u53d8\u91cf\uff08\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5c55\u793a\u6b21\u6570\u7b49\u53ef\u4ee5\u76f4\u63a5\u8ba1\u6570\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff09\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u610f\u4e49\u6570\u503c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9996\u5148\u9700\u8981\u5b9a\u4e49\u51e0\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>E = \u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ec4\u5185\u7684\u5c55\u793a\u6b21\u6570<\/li>\n<li>C = \u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u5185\u7684\u5c55\u793a\u6b21\u6570<\/li>\n<li>p = \u968f\u673a\u79fb\u81f3\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ec4\u5185\u7684\u7ade\u4ef7\u767e\u5206\u6bd4<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97 E \u4e0e C \u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u989d\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e C \u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff08\u5373\u00a0<em>ratio<\/em>\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6ca1\u6709\u8fdb\u884c\u4efb\u4f55\u66f4\u6539\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u503c\uff08\u5373\u00a0<em>expected_ratio<\/em>\uff09\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>ratio = (E-C) \/ C<\/li>\n<li>expected_ratio = (1 \/ (1-p)) &#8211; 2<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u6c42\u51fa\u00a0<em>ratio <\/em>\u548c\u00a0<em>expected_ratio<\/em> \u7684\u503c\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u662f\u5426&#8221;\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u5dee\u5f02&#8221;\u3002\u4e3a\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9996\u5148\u9700\u8981\u8ba1\u7b97\u6307\u6807\u7684&#8221;\u6807\u51c6\u504f\u5dee&#8221;\uff08\u5373\u6307\u6807\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u6ce2\u52a8\uff09\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>standard_deviation = (p \/ ( (C+E) * (1-p)^3 ))^0.5<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97 ratio \u4e0e expected_ratio \u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u503c\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u9664\u4ee5\u00a0standard_deviation\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7ed3\u679c\u79f0\u4e3a\u00a0<em>z-score<\/em>\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>z-score = (ratio &#8211; expected_ratio) \/ standard_deviation<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e00\u6b65\u5b8c\u6210\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u5c31\u7b97\u5927\u529f\u544a\u6210\u4e86\uff0cz-score \u6570\u503c\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u8868\u793a\u4e24\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\u6709\u5dee\u5f02\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u5982\u679c z-score \u5927\u4e8e 3.29\uff0c\u5219\u5b9e\u9a8c\u63d0\u9ad8\u8be5\u6307\u6807\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5c31\u662f 99.9%\uff08\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e09\u4e2a\u5411\u4e0a\u7684\u7bad\u5934\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6807\u8bb0\uff0c\u65b9\u4fbf\u60a8\u770b\u51fa\u8be5\u6307\u6807\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5f88\u5927\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\u5982\u679c z-score \u5927\u4e8e 2.57\uff0c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5185\u6307\u6807\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5c31\u662f 99%\uff08\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e24\u4e2a\u5411\u4e0a\u7684\u7bad\u5934\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6807\u8bb0\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\u5982\u679c z-score \u5927\u4e8e 1.96\uff0c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5185\u6307\u6807\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5c31\u662f 95%\uff08\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e00\u4e2a\u5411\u4e0a\u7684\u7bad\u5934\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6807\u8bb0\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\u5982\u679c z-score \u4f4e\u4e8e -1.96\uff0c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5185\u6307\u6807\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5c31\u662f 95%\uff08\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e00\u4e2a\u5411\u4e0b\u7684\u7bad\u5934\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6807\u8bb0\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\u5982\u679c z-score \u4f4e\u4e8e -2.57\uff0c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5185\u6307\u6807\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5c31\u662f 99%\uff08\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e24\u4e2a\u5411\u4e0b\u7684\u7bad\u5934\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6807\u8bb0\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\u5982\u679c z-score \u4f4e\u4e8e -3.29\uff0c\u5219\u5b9e\u9a8c\u964d\u4f4e\u8be5\u6307\u6807\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5c31\u662f 99.9%\uff08\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e09\u4e2a\u5411\u4e0b\u7684\u7bad\u5934\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6807\u8bb0\uff0c\u65b9\u4fbf\u60a8\u770b\u51fa\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u5982\u679c z-score \u503c\u4ecb\u4e8e -1.96 \u4e0e 1.96 \u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u672a\u4f7f\u6307\u6807\u51fa\u73b0\u5347\u964d\u7684\u51e0\u7387\u4ece 5% \u5230 100% \u90fd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u5f88\u96be\u8bf4\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\u4f1a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5b9e\u9645\u53d8\u52a8\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u4ee5\u4e2d\u6027\u56fe\u6807\u6765\u6807\u8bb0\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\uff08\u8bf7\u6ce8\u610f\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u6216\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ec4\u7684\u5c55\u793a\u6b21\u6570\u90fd\u662f 0\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u81ea\u52a8\u5c06\u5c55\u793a\u6b21\u6570\u7b97\u4f5c 1\uff0c\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u7528 0  \u53bb\u9664\u4efb\u4f55\u6570\u5b57\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u5c11\u6570\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u4f1a\u65e0\u6cd5\u6210\u529f\u8ba1\u7b97\u7edf\u8ba1\u610f\u4e49\u6570\u503c\uff0c\u6b64\u65f6\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u81ea\u52a8\u663e\u793a\u4e2d\u6027\u56fe\u6807\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u5f53\u5e7f\u544a\u7cfb\u5217\u5728\u5c55\u793a\u5e7f\u544a\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0a\u6295\u653e\u65f6\uff0c\u6807\u51c6\u504f\u5dee\u4f1a\u6709\u6240\u589e \u52a0\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5f53\u540c\u4e00\u7528\u6237\u5728\u77ed\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u91cd\u590d\u52a0\u8f7d\u540c\u4e00\u7f51\u9875\u65f6\uff0c\u5bf9\u7ade\u4ef7\u7684\u62c6\u5206\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u7a0d\u5fae\u504f\u79bb\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8bbe\u7f6e\u3002\uff09<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><a>\u8ba1\u7b97\u70b9\u51fb\u7387\u3001\u8f6c\u5316\u7387\u7b49&#8221;\u767e\u5206\u6bd4&#8221;\u6307\u6807\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u610f\u4e49\u6570\u503c<\/a><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>\u8981\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e8c\u9879\u5f0f (Binomial) \u53d8\u91cf\uff08\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u70b9\u51fb\u7387\u7b49\u7528\u4e24\u4e2a\u8ba1\u6570\u7c7b\u6307\u6807\u76f8\u9664\u6240\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u6307\u6807\uff09\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u610f\u4e49\u6570\u503c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9996\u5148\u9700\u8981\u5b9a\u4e49\u51e0\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>CTR_E = \u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ec4\u5185\u7684\u70b9\u51fb\u7387<\/li>\n<li>CTR_C = \u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u5185\u7684\u70b9\u51fb\u7387<\/li>\n<li>E = \u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ec4\u5185\u7684\u5c55\u793a\u6b21\u6570<\/li>\n<li>C = \u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u5185\u7684\u5c55\u793a\u6b21\u6570<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97 CTR_E \u4e0e CTR_C \u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff08\u5373\u00a0<em>ratio<\/em>\uff09\uff1b\u800c\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6ca1\u6709\u5bf9\u8be5\u6bd4\u7387\u8fdb\u884c\u4efb\u4f55\u66f4\u6539\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u503c\uff08\u5373\u00a0<em>expected_ratio<\/em>\uff09\u5c31\u4f1a\u662f 1\uff08\u7531\u4e8e\u60a8\u6ca1\u6709\u8fdb\u884c\u66f4\u6539\uff0c\u70b9\u51fb\u7387\u4e5f\u5e94\u8be5\u4fdd\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\uff09\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>ratio = (CTR_E \/ CTR_C)<\/li>\n<li>expected_ratio = 1<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u6c42\u51fa\u00a0<em>ratio <\/em>\u548c\u00a0<em>expected_ratio<\/em> \u7684\u503c\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u662f\u5426&#8221;\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u5dee\u5f02&#8221;\u3002\u4e3a\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9996\u5148\u9700\u8981\u8ba1\u7b97\u6307\u6807\u7684&#8221;\u6807\u51c6\u504f\u5dee&#8221;\uff08\u5373\u6307\u6807\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u6ce2\u52a8\uff09\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>standard_deviation=\u00a0 ((CTR_E \/ CTR_C^3) * ((E*CTR_E)+(C*CTR_C)-(CTR_C*CTR_E)*(C+E))\/(C*E)) ^ 0.5<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97 ratio \u4e0e expected_ratio \u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u503c\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u9664\u4ee5\u00a0standard_deviation\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7ed3\u679c\u79f0\u4e3a\u00a0<em>z-score<\/em>\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>z-score = (ratio &#8211; expected_ratio) \/ standard_deviation<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e00\u6b65\u5b8c\u6210\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u5c31\u7b97\u5927\u529f\u544a\u6210\u4e86\uff0cz-score \u6570\u503c\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u8868\u793a\u4e24\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\u6709\u5dee\u5f02\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u5982\u679c z-score \u5927\u4e8e 3.29\uff0c\u5219\u5b9e\u9a8c\u63d0\u9ad8\u8be5\u6307\u6807\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5c31\u662f 99.9%\uff08\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e09\u4e2a\u5411\u4e0a\u7684\u7bad\u5934\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6807\u8bb0\uff0c\u65b9\u4fbf\u60a8\u770b\u51fa\u8be5\u6307\u6807\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5f88\u5927\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\u5982\u679c z-score \u5927\u4e8e 2.57\uff0c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5185\u6307\u6807\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5c31\u662f 99%\uff08\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e24\u4e2a\u5411\u4e0a\u7684\u7bad\u5934\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6807\u8bb0\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\u5982\u679c z-score \u5927\u4e8e 1.96\uff0c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5185\u6307\u6807\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5c31\u662f 95%\uff08\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e00\u4e2a\u5411\u4e0a\u7684\u7bad\u5934\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6807\u8bb0\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\u5982\u679c z-score \u4f4e\u4e8e -1.96\uff0c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5185\u6307\u6807\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5c31\u662f 95%\uff08\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e00\u4e2a\u5411\u4e0b\u7684\u7bad\u5934\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6807\u8bb0\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\u5982\u679c z-score \u4f4e\u4e8e -2.57\uff0c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5185\u6307\u6807\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5c31\u662f 99%\uff08\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e24\u4e2a\u5411\u4e0b\u7684\u7bad\u5934\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6807\u8bb0\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\u5982\u679c z-score \u4f4e\u4e8e -3.29\uff0c\u5219\u5b9e\u9a8c\u964d\u4f4e\u8be5\u6307\u6807\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5c31\u662f 99.9%\uff08\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e09\u4e2a\u5411\u4e0b\u7684\u7bad\u5934\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6807\u8bb0\uff0c\u65b9\u4fbf\u60a8\u770b\u51fa\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u5982\u679c z-score \u503c\u4ecb\u4e8e -1.96 \u4e0e 1.96 \u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u672a\u4f7f\u6307\u6807\u51fa\u73b0\u5347\u964d\u7684\u51e0\u7387\u4ece 5% \u5230 100% \u90fd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u5f88\u96be\u8bf4\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\u4f1a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5b9e\u9645\u53d8\u52a8\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u4ee5\u4e2d\u6027\u56fe\u6807\u6765\u6807\u8bb0\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\uff08\u8bf7\u6ce8\u610f\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u6216\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ec4\u7684\u5c55\u793a\u6b21\u6570\u90fd\u662f 0\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u81ea\u52a8\u5c06\u5c55\u793a\u6b21\u6570\u7b97\u4f5c 1\uff0c\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u7528 0  \u53bb\u9664\u4efb\u4f55\u6570\u5b57\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u5c11\u6570\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u4f1a\u65e0\u6cd5\u6210\u529f\u8ba1\u7b97\u7edf\u8ba1\u610f\u4e49\u6570\u503c\uff0c\u6b64\u65f6\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u81ea\u52a8\u663e\u793a\u4e2d\u6027\u56fe\u6807\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u5f53\u5e7f\u544a\u7cfb\u5217\u5728\u5c55\u793a\u5e7f\u544a\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0a\u6295\u653e\u65f6\uff0c\u6807\u51c6\u504f\u5dee\u4f1a\u6709\u6240\u589e \u52a0\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5f53\u540c\u4e00\u7528\u6237\u5728\u77ed\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u91cd\u590d\u52a0\u8f7d\u540c\u4e00\u7f51\u9875\u65f6\uff0c\u5bf9\u7ade\u4ef7\u7684\u62c6\u5206\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u7a0d\u5fae\u504f\u79bb\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8bbe\u7f6e\u3002\uff09<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><a>\u8ba1\u7b97\u6bcf\u6b21\u70b9\u51fb\u8d39\u7528\u3001\u5e73\u5747\u6392\u540d\u7b49&#8221;\u8fde\u7eed&#8221;\u6307\u6807\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u610f\u4e49\u6570\u503c\u3002<\/a><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>\u8981\u8ba1\u7b97\u9ad8\u65af (Gaussian) \u53d8\u91cf\uff08\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u6bcf\u6b21\u70b9\u51fb\u8d39\u7528\u7b49\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u975e\u6574\u6570\u503c\u7684\u8fde\u7eed\u6307\u6807\uff09\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u610f\u4e49\u6570\u503c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9996\u5148\u9700\u8981\u5b9a\u4e49\u51e0\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Cost_E = \u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ec4\u5185\u7684\u603b\u8d39\u7528<\/li>\n<li>Cost_C = \u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u5185\u7684\u603b\u8d39\u7528<\/li>\n<li>Cost_square_E = \u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ec4\u5185\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6bcf\u6b21\u70b9\u51fb\u8d39\u7528\u7684\u603b\u5e73\u65b9\u503c<\/li>\n<li>Cost_square_C = \u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u5185\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6bcf\u6b21\u70b9\u51fb\u8d39\u7528\u7684\u603b\u5e73\u65b9\u503c<\/li>\n<li>E = \u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ec4\u5185\u7684\u70b9\u51fb\u6b21\u6570<\/li>\n<li>C = \u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u5185\u7684\u70b9\u51fb\u6b21\u6570<\/li>\n<li>CPC_E = \u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ec4\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u6b21\u70b9\u51fb\u8d39\u7528<\/li>\n<li>CPC_C = \u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u6b21\u70b9\u51fb\u8d39\u7528<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ec4\u548c\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u6b21\u70b9\u51fb\u8d39\u7528\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u5dee\u989d\uff08\u5373 \u00a0<em>diff<\/em>\uff09\uff1b\u800c\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6ca1\u6709\u5bf9\u8be5\u6307\u6807\u8fdb\u884c\u4efb\u4f55\u66f4\u6539\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u503c\uff08\u5373\u00a0<em>expected_diff<\/em>\uff09\u5c31\u4f1a\u662f 0\uff08\u7531\u4e8e\u60a8\u6ca1\u6709\u8fdb\u884c\u66f4\u6539\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u70b9\u51fb\u8d39\u7528\u4f1a\u4fdd\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\uff09\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>diff = 1 &#8211; (CPC_C\/CPC_E)<\/li>\n<li>expected_diff = 0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u6c42\u51fa\u00a0<em>diff <\/em>\u548c\u00a0<em>expected_diff<\/em> \u7684\u503c\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u662f\u5426&#8221;\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u5dee\u5f02&#8221;\u3002\u4e3a\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9996\u5148\u9700\u8981\u8ba1\u7b97\u6307\u6807\u7684&#8221;\u6807\u51c6\u504f\u5dee&#8221;\uff08\u5373\u6307\u6807\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u6ce2\u52a8\uff09\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>standard_deviation= (CPC_E^2 *  (Cost_square_C &#8211; Cost_C^2 \/ C) \/ C^2 + CPC_C^2 * (Cost_square_E &#8211;  Cost_E^2 \/ E) \/ E^2) \/ CPC_C^4) ^ 0.5<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97 diff \u4e0e expected_diff \u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u503c\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u9664\u4ee5 standard_deviation\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7ed3\u679c\u79f0\u4e3a\u00a0<em>z-score<\/em>\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>z-score = (ratio &#8211; expected_ratio) \/ standard_deviation<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e00\u6b65\u5b8c\u6210\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u5c31\u7b97\u5927\u529f\u544a\u6210\u4e86\uff0cz-score \u6570\u503c\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u8868\u793a\u4e24\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\u6709\u5dee\u5f02\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u5982\u679c z-score \u5927\u4e8e 3.29\uff0c\u5219\u5b9e\u9a8c\u63d0\u9ad8\u8be5\u6307\u6807\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5c31\u662f 99.9%\uff08\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e09\u4e2a\u5411\u4e0a\u7684\u7bad\u5934\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6807\u8bb0\uff0c\u65b9\u4fbf\u60a8\u770b\u51fa\u8be5\u6307\u6807\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5f88\u5927\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\u5982\u679c z-score \u5927\u4e8e 2.57\uff0c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5185\u6307\u6807\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5c31\u662f 99%\uff08\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e24\u4e2a\u5411\u4e0a\u7684\u7bad\u5934\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6807\u8bb0\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\u5982\u679c z-score \u5927\u4e8e 1.96\uff0c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5185\u6307\u6807\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5c31\u662f 95%\uff08\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e00\u4e2a\u5411\u4e0a\u7684\u7bad\u5934\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6807\u8bb0\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\u5982\u679c z-score \u4f4e\u4e8e -1.96\uff0c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5185\u6307\u6807\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5c31\u662f 95%\uff08\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e00\u4e2a\u5411\u4e0b\u7684\u7bad\u5934\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6807\u8bb0\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\u5982\u679c z-score \u4f4e\u4e8e -2.57\uff0c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5185\u6307\u6807\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5c31\u662f 99%\uff08\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e24\u4e2a\u5411\u4e0b\u7684\u7bad\u5934\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6807\u8bb0\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\u5982\u679c z-score \u4f4e\u4e8e -3.29\uff0c\u5219\u5b9e\u9a8c\u964d\u4f4e\u8be5\u6307\u6807\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5c31\u662f 99.9%\uff08\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e09\u4e2a\u5411\u4e0b\u7684\u7bad\u5934\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6807\u8bb0\uff0c\u65b9\u4fbf\u60a8\u770b\u51fa\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u5982\u679c z-score \u503c\u4ecb\u4e8e -1.96 \u4e0e 1.96 \u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u672a\u4f7f\u6307\u6807\u51fa\u73b0\u5347\u964d\u7684\u51e0\u7387\u4ece 5% \u5230 100% 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